[Linkpost] “With the Future of the World in Your Hands, Think for 6.77 Years!” by Dawn Drescher

Audio note: this article contains 69 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description. This is a link post. How long should you think about a problem that could determine the future of all existence? A mathematical journey from simple bets to existential risks. Imagine a simple game. There's a jar full of pebbles, and you’re offered a bet. If you can estimate the number of pebbles to within 10%, you win $100,000. If you’re wrong, you lose $100,000. You have as much time as you want to think. How long should you spend? A day? A week? A year? Now, imagine a much bigger game. You are part of a team that wants to start OpenAI. Your technology could be revolutionary, potentially ushering in an era of explosive economic growth and solving [...] ---Outline:(02:07) The Ground Rules: Our Simplified World(04:10) Model 1: Is This Worth My Time?(05:49) Model 2: The Cost of Delay(08:20) Model 3: An Accelerating World(14:18) Conclusion: The Humility of Models--- First published: August 9th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yP5og65WSPTXsJtov/with-the-future-of-the-world-in-your-hands-think-for-6-77 Linkpost URL:https://impartial-priorities.org/p/with-the-future-of-the-world-in-your --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.